Assessing the impact of mass rape on the incidence of HIV in conflict-affected countries.

OBJECTIVES To quantify the potential impact of mass rape on HIV incidence in seven conflict-afflicted countries (CACs), with severe HIV epidemics, in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN Uncertainty analysis of a risk equation model. METHODS A mathematical model was used to evaluate the potential impact of mass rape on increasing HIV incidence in women and girls in Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, southern Sudan and Uganda. The model was parameterized with data from UNAIDS/WHO and the US Census Bureau's International Database. Incidence data from UNAIDS/WHO were used for calibration. RESULTS Mass rape could cause approximately five HIV infections per 100,000 females per year in the DRC, Sudan, Somalia and Sierra Leone, double the number in Burundi and Rwanda, and quadruple the number in Uganda. The number of females infected per year due to mass rape is likely to be relatively low in Somalia and Sierra Leone at 127 [median (interquartile range [IQR] 55-254)] and 156 [median (IQR 69-305)], respectively. Numbers could be high in the DRC and Uganda: 1120 [median (IQR 527-2360)] and 2172 [median (IQR 1031-4668)], respectively. In Burundi, Rwanda and Sudan, the numbers are likely to be intermediate. Under extreme conditions, 10,000 women and girls could be infected per year in the DRC and 20 000 women and girls could be infected per year in Uganda. Mass rape could increase annual incidence by approximately 7% [median (IQR 3-15)]. CONCLUSION Interventions and treatment targeted to rape survivors during armed conflicts could reduce HIV incidence. Support should be provided both on the basis of human rights and public health.